Our Oscars predictions and picks
Penn Ketchum is a film fan and the owner of Penn Cinema Riverfront IMAX in Wilmington and Penn Cinema in Lititz, Pennsylvania. Who better to write about Oscar predictions than a theater owner? Read on.
Well, here we are. It's February and we are but days away from the 2017 Oscars, celebrating the best in film from 2016. The ceremony is on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. on ABC
The Oscars are, of course, always held in Los Angeles, and the locale seems especially fitting this year given the high profile of "La La Land," so let's start there.
"La La Land" has already made headlines by securing a ridiculous 14 Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Actor, Actress and so on -- basically all the cool ones. For some perspective, "Titanic" also got 14 nominations and went on to win 11 of them.
There's no doubt that in Hollywood buzz counts, and there's no doubt that "La La Land" has buzz. Lots of it.
With that being said, I predict "La La Land" will win Best Picture over "Fences," "Lion," "Hacksaw Ridge," "Hell or High Water," "Arrival," "Manchester By the Sea," "Hidden Figures" and "Moonlight."
It will also win a bunch of other awards, including Best Director for Damien Chazelle.
But, alas, I do not think Ryan Gosling or Emma Stone will go home with the little golden man. "La La Land" is a juggernaut, no doubt, but there are some Hollywood debts to be paid and talents to be noted.
Gosling is up against Casey Affleck in "Manchester By the Sea," Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge," Viggo Mortensen in "Captain Fantastic" and Denzel Washington in "Fences."
Gosling will likely get a bunch of votes based, if nothing more, on his incredible craft. What I mean by craft are the skills that he reportedly learned just for this role, like piano and dance. (It reminds me of what people were saying about Leonardo DiCaprio last year. What did he do to prepare for his role in "The Revenant"? What, did he, like, wrestle a bear or something? What we know is that he went on to win). So that will get Gosling some votes.
But my boy Casey Affleck will, I bet, take the win for Best Actor in a Leading Role. Affleck has been great forever. I first took notice of him in the "Ocean's Eleven" franchise, where his bickering brother routine with Scott Caan was perfect. With his accomplished brother Ben's success and Casey's growing number of serious credits, Casey's work in "Manchester By the Sea" will likely get him into the club this year.
Again -- there was a lot of buzz about his acting in this film. I'm telling you: Buzz.
Gosling's co-star Emma Stone will have a hard time beating out her fellow Best Actress in a Leading Role nominees Natalie Portman in "Jackie," Isabelle Huppert in "Elle," Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins" and Ruth Negga in "Loving."
And while Emma Stone was great in "La La Land" and certainly worthy of the Best Actress nom, she will be hard pressed to beat out Natalie Portman for her role in "Jackie." But even Portman could be beaten by Ruth Negga.
Never heard of her? Me neither. But Negga was the leading actress in "Loving," and although "Loving" got no love at the box office, it got a lot of love in Hollywood. It's generally agreed that the film and the cast were incredible. (It just happened that nobody wanted to shell out $12 to see a challenging film with no stars in it. And don't try to tell me Joel Edgerton is a star. Not yet, he's not.).
So my prediction is Natalie Portman for Best Actress, but Ruth Negga could be a surprise winner.
Viola Davis ("Fences") is a lock for Best Supporting Actress, up against Naomie Harris for "Moonlight," Nicole Kidman for "Lion," Octavia Spencer for "Hidden Figures" and Michelle Williams for "Manchester By the Sea."
Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight") will duke it out with Dev Patel ("Lion") for Best Supporting Actor. Ali has the buzz for his role in "Moonlight," but Patel has the love in Hollywood. I think this one is too close to call. They're nominated along with Jeff Bridges for "Hell or High Water," Lucas Hedges for "Manchester By the Sea" and Michael Shannon for "Nocturnal Animals."
Best director -- or, ahem, Best Achievement in Directing, lest they hurt anyone's feelings -- will go in a landslide to Damien Chazelle. And not just because it's fun to say his name. Damien wrote and directed "La La Land" and also "Whiplash," which was nominated for Best Picture in 2015.
Hollywood has allowed Mel Gibson to come back into the mainstream with "Hacksaw Ridge," but they won't vote for him just yet. Barry Jenkins has a ton of buzz for "Moonlight," but, again, I don't think he can stand up against the "La La Land" love. So my pick here is Chazelle for "La La Land" over Jenkins, Gibson, Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester By the Sea" and Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival."
And here are a couple of freebie picks: Chazelle will also win for writing since his is in the Original Screenplay category, which means they can vote for him and also vote for Jenkins to win in the Adapted Screenplay category.
"La La Land" will win all the music awards. I bet it will even win some awards it wasn't even nominated for.
As for the rest of the ballot, any film having to do with immigration, refugees or children will win their respective category, be it animated, documentary, etc. And the rest of the awards are pretty hard to pick, so, you know, pick someone you like or someone with a cool name.
The Academy has promised entertainment, passion and fun. Obviously, this year will be an exceptionally politically-charged ceremony. I really just hope that one, the people who say political things are actually smart and have something intelligent to contribute to the country's conversation. Be passionate, be specific, have something to say!
And two, I hope we get to see the real, raw emotion from someone who is caught completely off guard by their win. (For example, it'd be great if I were wrong and Isabelle Huppert won for her role in "Elle.") I hope they cry and laugh and go crazy.
They're my favorites.
They're why I watch.
They're what make us all feel the human connection.
And if I can't have either of those, I hope someone trips falling up the steps.
Penn Ketchum is a film fan and the owner of Penn Cinema Riverfront IMAX in Wilmington and Penn Cinema in Lititz, Pennsylvania.
OUR PICKS
55 Hours editor Sarika Jagtiani and entertainment/pop culture reporter Ryan Cormier select their picks for who should win in the top eight categories at this year's Academy Awards.
Best Picture
"Arrival"
"Fences"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"Hell or High Water"
"Hidden Figures"
"La La Land"
"Lion"
"Manchester by the Sea"
"Moonlight" (Cormier, Jagtiani)
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve – "Arrival"
Mel Gibson – "Hacksaw Ridge"
Damien Chazelle – "La La Land" (Jagtiani -- I'm with Penn Ketchum on this one.)
Kenneth Lonergan – "Manchester by the Sea" (Cormier)
Barry Jenkins – "Moonlight"
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – "Manchester by the Sea" (Cormier)
Andrew Garfield – "Hacksaw Ridge"
Ryan Gosling – "La La Land"
Viggo Mortensen – "Captain Fantastic"
Denzel Washington – "Fences" (Jagtiani)
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – "Elle" (Jagtiani - I'm hoping for a surprise in this category, which should have gone to Viola Davis, who is nominated in the supporting actress category).
Ruth Negga – "Loving"
Natalie Portman – "Jackie" (Cormier)
Emma Stone – "La La Land"
Meryl Streep – "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – "Moonlight" (Cormier, Jagtiani)
Jeff Bridges – "Hell or High Water"
Lucas Hedges – "Manchester by the Sea"
Dev Patel – "Lion"
Michael Shannon – "Nocturnal Animals"
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – "Fences" (Cormier, Jagtiani)
Naomie Harris – "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman – "Lion"
Octavia Spencer – "Hidden Figures"
Michelle Williams – "Manchester by the Sea"
Best Original Screenplay
"Hell or High Water"
"La La Land"
"The Lobster"
"Manchester by the Sea" (Cormier, Jagtiani)
"20th Century Women"
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Arrival"
"Fences"
"Hidden Figures"
"Lion"
"Moonlight" (Cormier, Jagtiani)
OSCAR WATCH PARTY
Theatre N (1007 N. Orange St., Wilmington) will host a free Academy Awards viewing party Sunday at 8:30 p.m. Doors open at 8:15 p.m. for the Jimmy Kimmel-hosted show. Oscar ballots will be provided and whoever gets the most correct will win two free tickets to Theatre N shows for a year. Dressing up encouraged, but not required. Movie theater concessions, including beer and wine, will be for sale. Go to theatren.com for details.