Ocean City businesses optimistic for Labor Day — if the weather holds

Ocean City businesses are banking on some tidy profits this Labor Day weekend barring one, uncertain condition — more rain, which deluged the town earlier this week.

Their fears may be largely assuaged, according to Mike Montefusco, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia.

Montefusco said remnants of Hurricane Harvey, which battered parts of the Texas coast over the last few days, will be sending lingering showers through the town through Friday and into Saturday, but the area should be bright after that.

"Following that, we're looking into some real clearing up by Sunday," he said. "We'll be warming up into the low-80s on Sunday and Monday with diminishing clouds, and those should be the best days of the holiday weekend."

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That's likely to come as welcome news to Susan Jones, director of the Ocean City Hotel/Motel/Restaurant Association, who said everything hinges on the forecast.

"Basically everything is going to be absolutely dependent on the weather," she said. "Typically, if the forecast is great we’ll be really, really busy, but if things aren’t so beautiful things won’t be as busy as if we had a full weekend of sunshine."

Jones said things look fairly promising for lodgings in the area, but it's still up in the air.

"There are a handful of businesses sold out already, but Labor Day is historically weather-dependent and we don’t expect anything different this weekend," she said.

For some town businesses, the upcoming holiday weekend is going to be a nice "cherry on top" following a solid season, Jones said. But for others, it's a much-needed injection of cash following a few months that saw a great deal of bad weather.

"It completely depends on who you ask," she said. "We have people that have had really good seasons, some who’ve been so-so, and some who have been really off, and there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to it."

However, Jones was quick to point out that "so-so," isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world.

"We’ve had some really good summers in the past and you can’t always go up, so maintaining numbers is actually not a bad outlook when it comes down to it," she said.

Aside from September events like Sunfest and Bike Week, August is the tourist-driven town's last chance to earn a few bucks.

By the numbers, tax revenue tends to peak in July, slowly drifting down afterward. In July 2016, tourism-coded taxes for Ocean City were $15.46 million. In August, they dropped to $13.75 million.

Vicki Barrett, the owner of the small, Boardwalk-located Inn on the Ocean, echoed some of Jones' statements while simultaneously saying how fantastic this particular year has been for her 10th Street business.

"This is probably the best year we've had since 2008, and that's all due to word-of-mouth and a better economy," she said. "But whether or not we reach full occupancy is really, really going to depend on how the weather holds out."

However, it's not just the unpredictability of the weather that's playing a factor in her business' profit margins this holiday, but the very mentality of travelers, which has changed over her 17 years operating the inn.

"The average traveler is different than it used to be," she said. "It isn't like in the past where factories would close and everyone had paid time off. When you add to that the fact that millennials are doing everything spontaneously — even weekend vacations —  it makes things uncertain."

In spite of that uncertainty, the number of travelers estimated by the Maryland Transportation Authority — 1.8 million over the holiday weekend throughout the state — bodes well for businesses such as Barnett's.

Ocean City Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Melanie Purselagreed with Barnett's positive outlook while also recognizing the overall unknowns in play for how the summer has played out for local businesses.

"It’s been a little up and down, but it’s been really good overall," she said. "We’ve had a really nice summer with a lot of free family activities that have made for a very strong summer overall."

That said, Pursel is "extremely optimistic," in part due to a recent directive from the upper eschelons of state governance.

"We’ve already seen more and more families coming down," she said. "We believe it’s due to the post-Labor Day school start."

That late start for Maryland public schools was a result of Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's 2016 mandate that students begin classes no earlier than Sept. 5 — a week or two later (depending on the county) than they previously did.

Chris Maxa, general manager at Kite Loft on the Boardwalk — whose business virtually depends on families visiting Ocean City with children in tow — said the governor's mandate helps them tremendously.

"It's just really a pro-business move (by Hogan), not only to Kite Loft, but to Ocean City in general," he said. "In a seasonal business with a limited revenue-earnings season, we'll take anything we can get.

"And having more children around for an extra week or two — we'll absolutely take that."

But Jeff Burton, director of operations of Ocean Taps, which operates multiple Taphouse Bar and Grill restaurants along the Boardwalk, said that while Hogan's mandate helps them somewhat, it still all comes back to the weather.

"If the weather holds off we should be OK, and that's the whole issue now," he said. "That's basically all it comes down to for everyone here."

This is the most rain-filled August he can remember in a long time, Burton said, and that's been making him hesitate on his outlook for the season's finale, despite what he called a "successful summer."

"You have Sunfest and Bike Week coming up, but this is the end-all and be-all for all of us in the city," he said. "The weather is what's saying if we're going to be OK — and if it's good we'll be really good — but that's the whole issue for us at the moment."