What is at stake for Delaware in Tuesday's election

This is the most important election of our lifetimes, the familiar mantra goes.

Whether or not that's true, Delaware voters will be making some critical decisions Tuesday that could have immediate impacts on their lives.

The biggest question is whether they will hand control of the state Senate to Republicans for the first time in nearly 50 years, and the answer could come down to how voters feel about President Donald Trump.

Democrats are hoping the midterms prove to be such an overwhelming referendum on the president that it produces a "blue wave" that filters down ballots and threatens Republicans running for state seats.

Such an outcome would threaten to remove Republicans from the state treasurer and state auditor seats – the only two statewide elected offices they hold.

Democrats would love to see health care consultant Colleen Davis unseat incumbent Treasurer Ken Simpler, who is being heralded as a possible future gubernatorial candidate.

They also are eager to retake the state Auditor's Office for the first time since 1989. Rehoboth Beach Commissioner Kathy McGuiness, a Democrat, is running against Republican and former Newark police officer James Spadola, who recently was appointed deputy auditor by longtime Republican incumbent Tom Wagner.

A blue wave that reaches down Delaware's ballot also could extend Democrats majority in the Legislature where they hold a one-vote advantage in the Senate and a fragile supermajority in the House.

That would clear the way for significant changes to the state's finances, an Equal Rights Amendment, additional gun control measures and a $15-an-hour minimum wage.

There is no guarantee any of that will happen, however.

Republicans believe they might have blunted the Democrats' blue wave in recent weeks thanks to their huge win in getting Judge Brent Kavanaugh onto the U.S. Supreme Court and Trump's push to rally the base by focusing on immigration.

Most prognosticators agree the Democrats can gain the 23 seats they need to seize control of the U.S. House. Flipping the U.S. Senate is widely considered a longshot.

The GOP is losing ground among all registered voters in Delaware, yet Republicans are gaining ground in pockets of the state, particularly in Kent and Sussex counties.

And if pro-Trump voters turn out in force in select parts of the state, they could flip the balance of power in the state Senate and cause huge headaches for Gov. John Carney and Democrats in the General Assembly.

What Senate seats could flip?

Democrats have controlled the 21-member state Senate since 1974, giving the state's last four governors – all Democrats – a relatively free pass when it comes to appointments and a valuable advantage on key legislation.

But that edge has been slipping since the 2010 election that swept Republicans into Congress.

Now only one vote separates Republicans from controlling the upper chamber, and there are five seats up for grabs Tuesday.

Flipping one of those seats would allow Republican leaders to block Carney appointees, dismantle programs they have long opposed and defeat legislation they do not support.

The Delaware GOP's best chance to achieve that goal might be in the 17th District, which represents the Legislative Hall area and most of Dover.

There, Camden's Republican mayor Justin King is vying with two-term Democratic state Rep. Trey Paradee for an open seat that for a decade has been held by retiring Democratic incumbent Brian Bushweller.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by a 2-1 margin, but Kent County has been gradually moving further to the right. 

Both candidates have significant local name recognition and each was pushing the $100,000 fundraising mark by early October, although more than half of the total for King came from a $50,000 loan he gave his campaign.

Republicans also are targeting the 10th District in southwestern New Castle County that incumbent Stephanie Hansen of Middletown was able to win in a 2016 special election with the backing of the full Democratic establishment. Hansen is largely on her own this time around and facing a challenge from Republican doctor Christine Metzing of Mount Pleasant.

The most likely person who would lead a Republican-controlled Senate is current Minority Whip Greg Lavelle of Sharpley, who long has been a thorn in the side of Democrats.

That's one reason the state Democratic Party has put considerable effort into helping political newcomer and public school teacher Laura Sturgeon of Fairfax upset the Senate's top-ranking Republican in toney northern New Castle County's 4th District, where registered voters are almost evenly split by party.

The other reason is Democrats simply want to expand their majority in the Senate. This year, the party's current razor-thin advantage, for example, allowed one or two dissenting Democrats to block a vote on a proposed assault weapons ban and legislation that sought to hike the state's minimum wage to $10.25. 

Democrats also are reportedly targeting incumbent Republican Ernie Lopez, a Lewes Republican who has represented Sussex County's purply blue 6th District since 2013. He is facing a challenge from former County Administrator Dave Baker of Milton.

What will happen in the state House?

Control of the state House is far less likely to switch over from Democrat to Republican this cycle – even though every seat is technically up for grabs.

Democrats have held a three-fifths supermajority since the 2010 election. Their current 25-16 advantage means they theoretically can approve tax increases without a single Republican vote.

Republicans, of course, would like to close that gap. Democrats want to see it wider, especially because it now takes only a single dissenting member of their party to prevent tax legislation from passing.

Democrats, for instance, saw one member of their caucus – Dover Democrat Rep. Andria Bennett – vote against a proposed income tax hike on the final day of the 2017 legislative session, tanking a proposed budget and pushing the Legislature beyond July 1 for the first time in decades.

Because of a recent wave of retirements, eight of the House's 41 seats have no incumbent running for office. Each party has high hopes of flipping at least one of those seats.

Both sides, for example, are keeping a close watch on Pike Creek's District 22, where Democrat and former Delaware Arts Alliance executive Guillermina Gonzalez is facing off against Republican Michael Smith, director of strategic initiatives and partnerships for the University of Delaware's College of Health Sciences.

Each is hoping to succeed Joseph Miro, a retiring Republican who held the seat for two decades despite Democrats holding a slight advantage in voter registration totals.

Two Republican incumbents in purple districts also could be in for a close fight.

Minority Whip Deborah Hudson of Greenville is being challenged by former state prosecutor Krista Griffith, while Rep. Michael Ramone is facing community organizer Stephanie Barry and a slew of accusations from Democratic operatives.

Contact reporter Scott Goss at (302) 324-2281, sgoss@delawareonline.com or on Twitter @ScottGossDel.

NATIONALLY

Congress: Democrats are hoping midterms will be a referendum on President Donald Trump, who has approval ratings below 50 percent. They are hoping for a blue wave to take back both chambers of Congress. Republicans hold a 51-47 advantage in the Senate (with two independents who caucus with Democrats). In the House, Republicans hold a 235-193 advantage, with seven vacancies.

DELAWARE

State Senate: With Democrats holding a one-vote advantage and five seats up for grabs, there is an opportunity for Republicans to control the chamber for the first time since 1974. 

Statewide Offices: Republicans hold the Treasurer's and Auditor's offices, although the incumbent auditor is retiring. Democrats hope the blue wave can flip those positions to Democrats, giving them possession of all statewide elected offices.

LOCALLY

Sussex County: Two Republican seats on the five-member Sussex County Council became open when one member retired and another announced a run for U.S. Senate. Even if Democrats win both seats, Republicans would still hold a 3-2 advantage. In Sussex, the biggest issue revolves around land use, and Tuesday’s winners will have an influence in those decisions.

Kent County: Republicans are hoping to buck the blue wave and gain five seats in the state House and two on Levy Court. If the first happens, Republicans could split the state House; if the second happens, the GOP would control the highest executive branch in Kent County.

New Castle County: Party affiliation typically doesn’t play into debates over land use and spending in the 13-seat New Castle County Council, but three seats are being contested by candidates of different parties. Two Democrats are facing Republicans, and one Democrat is being challenged by a Green Party candidate.