NOAA predicts active Atlantic hurricane season with 5 to 9 hurricanes

COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, two to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

Factors contributing to the prediction include: A weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear, said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes.

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Already this year, one tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which spun harmlessly in the middle of the ocean in April. The next named storms will be Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

Meteorologists at Colorado State University last month estimated 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts back in the 1980s.

The Weather Channel predicts an average season, with 12 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes. AccuWeather forecasts 10 named storms, five of which are projected to become hurricanes.

This year marks the 25th anniversary of Andrew, which tore into South Florida on Aug. 24, 1992.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 14 to 20 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

One weak eastern Pacific tropical storm, Adrian, already spun up earlier this month.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

The central Pacific outlook calls for five to eight tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. These are the storms that sometimes affect Hawaii.